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MBS RECAP: Bonds Surge to Weakest Levels since 2014

Posted To: MBS Commentary

10yr yields hit the highest levels in more than 4 years this afternoon as bigger-picture selling pressure looks to be taking the reigns back from the Springtime consolidation that helped rates hold steady-to-slightly lower in March. There are no big, obvious reasons for the sudden spike in rates. We're left to cobble together a narrative from boring, esoteric stuff like an "imbalance in trading positions," anxiety over the data, earnings, and bond supply next week, and the end of a few days of extra help from tax deadline retirement account funding. Or, if you'd like to go with fewer words , it's no less valid to say that technicals and momentum are the culprits. In other words, bonds were in a consolidation trend. They tested the ceiling, broke the ceiling, and have been...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Quickly Approaching 4-Year Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Let's clear one thing up before we begin. Freddie Mac, MBA, and Ellie Mae all noted new 4-year highs in mortgage rates this week. They are all technically wrong. This has to do with the way their data is collected and/or averaged. And while I have no doubt that they are accurately conveying the results of their data collection efforts according to their methodology, there is a more accurate way to do things. Specifically, we can track actual lenders' rate sheets every day. Even if we take an average of that daily data, we still find that rates aren't quite back to 4-year highs just yet. Depending on the lender, these occurred on one of the days near the end of February. In fact, some lenders' rates from March 21st are still higher than today's. Are we talking about very big differences between...(read more)

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Wells Fargo to Face Largest Fine Yet

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Once again Wells Fargo is about to pay dearly for its inability to walk the straight and narrow. The Washington Post , under the byline of Renae Merle, is reporting that the bank is about to be hit with the largest penalty of the Trump administration , perhaps as early as today. A settlement, reported to be in the neighborhood of $1 billion, has been reached between wells and its regulators, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) over improprieties in both their mortgage and auto lending business. The Bank acknowledged last week that it faced a hefty fine. Neither regulator has commented on the matter to date. Wells Fargo has admitted to charging some customers improper fees to lock in their mortgage interest rates and to forcing...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving Higher, It Could Still Be a Head Fake

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher. Yesterday brought additional confirmation of the end of the friendly Springtime consolidation trend and it took us one step closer to the highest yields in more than 4 years. The specific reasons for yesterday's weakness were covered in the MBS Live Huddle , but even then, the bigger-picture justification for gradual weakness in 2018 is well-documented here and elsewhere (Treasury issuance, Fed policy outlook, upside growth/inflation risks). Rates could very well continue higher today--possibly even enough to break those pesky 4-year highs from back in late February. But even if they do, it might not be the end of the world. In fact, there are at least 2 recent examples of big scary rate spikes consolidating (like we did in March...(read more)

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MBA's Compliance Accreditation; Freddie and Fannie Changes Continue

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Did you know that Wells Fargo gives more assistance and aid to people and communities through its Foundation than any other company in the United States. For example, “the Wells Fargo NeighborhoodLIFT program looks to the future by delivering down payment assistance and financial education to homebuyers.” If only people focused on that, right? Not only did Wells tragically lose an employee in the Southwest Airline accident, but in a smack to the Retail Division the American Federation of Teachers notified Wells that it is dropping the bank as a recommended mortgage lender for the national education union's 1.7 million members. The press continues to talk about a settlement of a potential $1 billion fine, and by some specific measures other lenders have overtaken Wells’ volume...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Add Exclamation Point to Yesterday's Breakout

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The break outside what we'll call the "Springtime Consolidation" for bonds started taking shape as early as last week. On Thursday and Friday, yields hugged the upper boundaries of that trend, simultaneously shying away from the sort of positive bounce that would typically suggest the trend's continuation. No matter! Perhaps they just needed to think things over for the weekend and things would look different on Monday. Nope! In fact, bonds weakened on Monday, which just about put the nail in the coffin of the Springtime Trend, but Tuesday's resilience raised doubts. By yesterday, however, we probably had our final answer with the big break above 2.835% and even a modest break above 2.86% in 10yr yields. Today's overnight weakness was plenty to put a period at the...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Levels in About a Month

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates jumped higher today as bonds continued a move away from narrow Springtime range seen in March and early April. Bonds dictate rate movement and yesterday saw the bond market make its first convincing attempt to break what had been a friendly, narrow range. This of course coincided with a narrow range for rates in the past few months. It was also "friendly" relative to the trajectory seen in the first part of the year. When these sorts of ranges become established, the boundaries take on a special significance. As soon as the floor or the ceiling is definitively broken, there tends to be some additional momentum in the direction of the break. That's why yesterday's headline mentioned that bonds were suggesting "more trouble ahead." I'd hoped to be wrong about that, but here's the...(read more)

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Weather Cools Remodeling Perceptions

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) is to home remodelers as the Housing Market Index (HMI) is to new home builders. Each is constructed by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to reflect builder confidence in their particular share of the market. The quarterly RMI is based on responses to a survey in which professional remodelers are asked to gauge current market conditions in terms of major and minor additions and alterations , maintenance and repairs on both owner- and renter occupied dwellings. NAHB assigns a numerical value to those answers. They are also asked about calls for bids, work commitments over the next three months, work backlogs, and appointments for proposals. Those questions form the basis of the future indicators index. The overall market index retreated to its...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: What Stock Lever? Bonds Tanking Without Any Help

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We've been increasingly wary about a potential break of the recent consolidation/rally trend --the one that saw yields move sideways to slightly stronger from late Feb through early April. Yields tiptoed to the top of that range as of Tuesday and then fired a more forceful warning shot with a bigger breakout yesterday. Today looks set to continue the destruction of the trend with sharp losses overnight. Where might this be going? With 2.86% breaking and 2.91% already being tested, there's really only the super-long-term highs at 2.95+ remaining. To see anything higher, we have to go back more than 4 years. If that breaks, there's not much overrun until we're looking at 2011's levels in the low 3's as the supportive ceiling. But let's slow down a bit. We'll cross...(read more)

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